Buffalo Sabres 2023-24 season preview: Playoff chances, projected points, roster rankings

Publish date: 2024-06-29

By Sean Gentille, Dom Luszczyszyn and Shayna Goldman

The Buffalo Sabres were one of the league’s most exciting teams in 2023-24 and have built some intense hype going into this season.

After a long and arduous rebuilding process, is this the year the Sabres live up to the hype and finally turn the corner?

We all know what the Sabres can do with the puck, but much of that hinges on what they can do without it. That’s the biggest task ahead, and why there was so much emphasis on elevating the blue line this offseason.

Was it enough? It doesn’t look that way on paper just yet, which may lead to other up-and-coming Atlantic Division teams pushing back to the postseason first. But there’s always a chance, especially if this team can build on some of the momentum they gained last year.

The projection

Right off the bat, we’re not thrilled about this forecast. Based on the hype the Sabres started to build last season, this feels like a forecast that won’t age well. Buffalo has a very young and exciting team on the rise and projecting a four-point drop feels wrong when everyone in the hockey world expects a playoff breakthrough. We don’t necessarily disagree with that assertion and a 20 percent shot at the playoffs does feel undeservingly low. Oddsmakers see this team closer to 92 points and a 50-50 playoff team.

But.

That doesn’t mean we should flat-out ignore The Model either and that might mean pumping the brakes just a little bit on the hype train. There are plenty of reasons to remain cautious about the Sabres’ chances this season and there’s nothing wrong with being a little late to the party, just to be sure.

Growing pains are real, development isn’t linear and it’s no guarantee Buffalo bursts right through to a playoff spot after coming so close last season. The Sabres are an intriguingly fun team, but their warts are real enough to warrant a “wait and see” approach to this upcoming season.

We hate to be the fun police, but there’s room for a slight reality check before the Sabres truly arrive. As is the case for any young team knocking on the door, they’ll have to prove the time is really now to do so.

The strengths

In what might be the biggest understatement of the preseason previews, Buffalo’s strengths lie in the offensive production at the top of its lineup. That’s the skill that pays the bills — only two teams had more players in our Top 125 list than the Sabres’ six. So it goes when your team is top five in goals both overall and at five-on-five, as they were in 2022-23. Buffalo is projected to be in that neighborhood once again, with a plus-23 Offensive Rating (eighth in the NHL).

That starts with Don Granato’s free-wheeling approach to offense. Buffalo, according to All Three Zones, generated more than 18 shots off the rush per 60 last season. Only the Devils had more. Furthermore, no team dumped the puck less frequently; Buffalo players carried the puck into the zone on nearly 57 percent of its zone entries, most in the league.

This is a speedy team built for the rush, through and through, and it leads to elite levels of production. Are there other ways to play effective hockey? Of course; the Carolina Hurricanes have been one of the top teams in the Eastern Conference for years, and their offensive style is, for all intents and purposes, the opposite. “Pick something to be good at” is simple advice that also works, particularly on Buffalo’s top two lines.

No player embodies the Sabres’ shift — from rudderless, bottom-rung saps to one of the league’s teams of The Moment in less than two seasons — better than Tage Thompson, the 6-foot-8 highlight machine who centers their top line. Thompson isn’t projected to make any significant jumps this season in terms of point production. No big deal; he did that in 2022-23. When you’re coming off 47 goals and 47 assists, there isn’t space left below the ceiling. He’s expected to match that this year.

Of course, when your physical traits are as ridiculous as Thompson’s, the typical rules tend not to apply. There’s plenty of substance to his offensive game, too — it’s fun to watch a gigantic man go dangle-snipe on a nightly basis, but he backs it up with elite shooting volume (ninth league-wide in shots per 60, between Jack Hughes and Jason Robertson). He’s become a special player. If you doubt that, just look at him. His plus-18 Offensive Rating ranks 13th in the league among forwards.

Alex Tuch clocking in as the Sabres’ No. 1 forward in terms of ice time might surprise some, but it shouldn’t. He’s a speedy, do-everything winger who finished 11th in the league in even-strength points per 60 and continues to make tons of sense as a long-term linemate for Thompson. That’s due to his playmaking ability (Thompson, for all his gifts, isn’t a traditional puck-distributing center) and some defensive upside that hasn’t quite manifested itself in the team’s results.

Dylan Cozens forced his way into the Player Tiers based on conversations around the NHL. Last season, the “Workhorse From Whitehorse” — elite nickname, for whatever that’s worth — scored 31 goals, positively impacted the Sabres’ offense all over the place and emerged as a long-term core piece for an up-and-coming team.

Elsewhere at forward, only six players in the league had more five-on-five points last season than Jeff Skinner’s 56. That, along with a plus-9 Offensive Rating for the “other” first-liner, is a major luxury. In the middle six, Jack Quinn showed some particularly solid flashes during his first NHL season, but his offseason Achilles injury is a wrench in the works. Casey Mittelstadt, one of Buffalo’s other top 10 picks, finally played the part, quietly scoring 59 points last season. He’s become an underrated playmaker, finishing sixth in five-on-five primary assists per 60 last season thanks to an elite ability to thread the needle into high-danger areas.

There’s also some decent defensive value on the bottom six in Zemgus Girgensons and Kyle Okposo and an intriguing addition in Jordan Greenway. Granato coached Greenway with the USNTDP and loves him, and he brings size and physicality without being a complete drag on puck possession. His counting stats with the Wild last season were ugly, but decent underlyings, realistic expectations and Granato’s recent track record go a long way.

The defense is top-heavy, in a sense, with one franchise-caliber guy on the first pair and another with similar potential on the second.

Dahlin, the No. 1 pick in 2018, took his long-awaited leap last season. We knew he could put up points — 40 in 59 games back in 2020-21 stands out — and that he needed work away from the puck. In 2022-23, he delivered on both fronts, racking up 73 points and improving his defensive impacts enough to put him on Norris ballots and the Franchise Tier for defensemen. The minutes got tougher and the transition work got better; his puck retrievals and zone exit rates, according to All Three Zones, were on par with Erik Karlsson’s. He needs another similar season to solidify his spot, and the model believes that’s what we’re going to see.

As for Buffalo’s No. 1 pick in 2021, Owen Power’s ceiling is sky high and, at 20, he already looks the part of a decent No. 2 defenseman. Offensively, he’s the real deal, already looking like one of the league’s best at joining the rush. His minutes weren’t particularly sheltered last season and he made out ahead earning 55 percent of the goals last season thanks to his ability to drive offense. Some of his defensive numbers may be ugly, but there’s plenty of room for growth there.

Something similar can be said for Devon Levi. It’d be irresponsible to project him as an above-average starter for this season; 6-foot 21-year-olds rarely manage. His upside, though, is impossible to view as anything but a strength. Levi demolished NCAA competition at Northeastern for two years, won gold for Canada at the 2021 World Junior Championship and put up a .905 save percentage/3.4 Goals Saved Above Expected in seven NHL games at the end of the season.

The weaknesses

We’ve spent plenty of time elsewhere on the Sabres’ single biggest weakness. There are only so many ways to say “they’re bad defensively,” and “their work away from the puck is going to be a major issue.” That’s true, but there’s also no need to belabor the point.

GO DEEPER

Sabres' big question: Is Buffalo strong enough without the puck to match the hype?

We’ll be quick about this: Thompson, for all his offensive gifts, could be one of the least effective defensive players in the league. Like, bottom five. Sixth from the basement, specifically. One team analyst compared his play to the legendary Alex Ovechkin/disconnected Xbox controller GIF.

Thompson’s overall projected Defensive Rating is, in fact, below 38-year-old Ovechkin’s. It’s below Patrick Kane’s. It’s also too close to too many of his teammates’ — Skinner, JJ Peterka, Cozens and Henri Jokiharju are all in the bottom 30 as well, among waves of Anaheim Ducks and Montreal Canadiens and Columbus Blue Jackets. For a team with playoff aspirations, that’s a terrible sign. Granato is a good coach who seems to be facing a clear challenge: getting his team to tighten up in one end, at least a little, without sacrificing its identity. Given their other year-over-year improvements, it’s possible. It’s also necessary, especially in an Atlantic Division featuring a couple of other on-the-rise teams.

With Quinn out, Mittelstadt possibly starting the season on the second line and prospect Jiri Kulich likely still a work in progress, the lineup could wind up a bit top-heavy at times. The Athletic’s Matthew Fairburn in July projected Peyton Krebs to open up as the third-line center. Krebs improved as a defensive player last season at a solid cost to his offensive play-driving, which makes slotting him behind Thompson and Cozens an iffy proposition, although he’s still only 21.

The power play, which clicked at a top-10 success rate last season, also might be in for a regression. Only Edmonton’s history-making, typical-rules-don’t-apply unit scored more goals above expected per 60 minutes than the Sabres’ 1.7. Their team shooting percentage with the man advantage was 16.23, fourth in the league.

A recurring theme here has been “Buffalo has loads of offensive talent,” so it’d be unwise to dismiss a repeat performance out of hand. However, it did seem like teams started to figure out Buffalo’s power play in the second half — specifically, cover the tall guy with one of the best one-timers in the league. Thompson scored 5.9 goals per 60 on the power play going into the new year off of 2.5 expected goals per 60. From January onward he still scored on 25 percent of his shots, but he wasn’t getting the same looks, earning 10 fewer shots per 60 and one fewer expected goal per 60 which resulted in a drop to 3.5 goals per 60.

That’s still very good, just not nearly as earth-shattering. That meant fewer weapons taking more shots with much less effectiveness which manifested into significantly weaker team results. Up until January, the Sabres scored 10.6 goals/60 on the power play off of 7.4 expected goals/60. That dropped to 7.0 goals/60 off of 7.1 expected goals/60 afterward. That’s a tangible drop that could have a huge effect on Buffalo’s bottom line. The Sabres need their power play to be elite to make the playoffs.

On the blue line, there probably isn’t enough help for Dahlin and Power, though Mattias Samuelsson did put up a solid 14.8 percent entry denial rate last season per All Three Zones, best among Buffalo’s regular defensemen. He projects to be a solid complementary piece and makes sense as Dahlin’s long-term partner, but the results last season weren’t particularly good. Beyond that, despite the additions of former Boston Bruin Connor Clifton (slotted in as Power’s partner) and Erik Johnson (an Avalanche staple who’s now 35), they’re on track to be overextended in too many places.

All that makes it even harder to trust the Buffalo’s goaltending, arguably the team’s biggest weakness. We already know Eric Comrie and Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen aren’t the solution. If Devon Levi isn’t either, good luck.

The wild card

Is Devon Levi the answer in between the pipes?

If there’s one singular reason why Buffalo didn’t make the playoffs last year, it was goaltending. Between Luukkonen, Craig Anderson and Eric Comrie, the Sabres allowed 14.6 goals above expected. That’s over two wins lost.

That has potential to change in a big way with Levi. He had a seven-game audition last year and knocked it out of the park with a .908 save percentage and 3.7 goals saved above expected. He was Buffalo’s best goalie and it wasn’t close.

Can we expect more of the same in his first full season? Well, that’s where things get tricky.

The effect of the starter’s grind can’t be diminished here. There’s a big difference between Levi being great for seven games and doing it for 40-to-50 games — especially as a 21-year-old. Since 2007-08 there have only been four rookie goalies to start 41 games or more at that age or younger: Steve Mason, Sergei Bobrovsky, Carey Price and Carter Hart.

The good news there: All four seasons were pretty strong, with 5.5 goals saved per 48 games on average. If Levi proves to be that guy, it’ll be for good reason. His current expectation at plus-1 is cautious optimism due to good results in a small sample, but with Levi’s pedigree, it would be no surprise to see him eclipse that.

Still, for every goalie who successfully becomes a starter at age 21, there are far more examples of a goalie struggling at that age to either handle the workload, perform at that level or both.

Levi might be Buffalo’s savior and soar past his projection here. But that’s a lot of hope to pin on a 21-year-old netminder, and history offers many reasons for skepticism. With Buffalo’s lack of a backup plan, the Sabres need to be right about Levi.

The best case

The Sabres build off last year’s momentum by maintaining a high level of offense and cleaning up play in their own zone. Thompson learns to defend, Dahlin brings more Norris-caliber play and Power takes a leap forward. Levi proves himself to be the goalie of the present and future. Buffalo makes the playoffs and the young core gains important experience.

The worst case

The defense is a wreck and it drags down the Sabres’ offense. Levi is overwhelmed, which forces Buffalo to rely on unstable goaltending. The team takes a huge step back from last year and stays out of the playoff race, but doesn’t fall enough in the standings to gain a top pick.

The bottom line

Everyone loves the Sabres. There probably isn’t a more fun team in the league. A playoff berth would be a fantastic feel-good story that one of the most enthusiastic cities in hockey truly deserves.

We’re not counting it out; there’s a huge amount of upside here. But a lot of internal progression needs to happen without the puck to make it more of a certainty.

Buffalo has improved by leaps and bounds over the last two seasons. It’s possible it’ll do the same this season. But a small step back spent learning to play the right way before taking off as a true Cup contender wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world. It’s not the unlikeliest either.